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Recent Posts

Disasters Can Happen

Recession Watch Fall 2017

by MN Gordon

Economic Prism

One Ear to the Ground, One Eye to the Future

Treasury yields are attempting to say something.  But what it is exactly is open to interpretation.  What’s more, only the most curious care to ponder it.

Like Southern California’s obligatory June Gloom, what Treasury yields may appear to be foreshadowing can be somewhat misleading.  Are investors anticipating deflation or inflation?  Are yields adjusting to some other market or external phenomenon, perhaps central bank intervention?

So far this year, and in the face of the much-ballyhooed prospect of Trumpflation, the yield on the 10-Year note has gone down.  Not up.  On January 1st, the 10-Year note yielded 2.44 percent.  As of market close Thursday, the yield was 2.22 percent.

At first (Read More....)

. . . → Read More: Recession Watch Fall 2017

Is DOW 20,000 and U.S. National Debt $20 trillion merely a coincidence? Or is there a correlation?

TreasuryWreck the Halls

by MN Gordon

Economic Prism

Arrested Development

Despite the best efforts of the bulls to make history happen, they’ve been unable to ‘git-r-done.’  At the time of this writing, the DOW is facing another bout of arrested development; it has yet to notch 20,000 for the very first time.

What a feat it will be when this remarkable, but trivial, event comes to pass.  After a near eight year run, the DOW will likely eclipse this exquisitely round numeric threshold in the very near future.  Shouldn’t such an achievement – and the associated wealth effect – have made us all (Read More....)

. . . → Read More: Is DOW 20,000 and U.S. National Debt $20 trillion merely a coincidence? Or is there a correlation?

Will the national struggle end with the election of Donald Trump?

by MN Gordon

Economic Prism

Ordinary ideals of Americana range as far and wide as the North American continent.  The valued conviction of one American vastly differs from that of another.  Joe from Santa Fe may have little connection with Joe in South Bend or Joe in South Boston.

One may celebrate adventures in mysticisms.  Another may find inspiration sitting in a college football grandstand.  While a third struggles to free himself of the orthodox hobgoblins that suffocate his soul.

Until Donald Trump came along, the story of the national struggle, as outlined by the discredited mainstream media, had been told with delicate regularity.  The news was professed from the locus of the two party political system…any diverging views were carefully sifted out.  What was reported was only what the story editors allowed to pass through their single micron particulate (Read More....)

. . . → Read More: Will the national struggle end with the election of Donald Trump?

The One Thing that Will Change Everything

by MN Gordon

Economic Prism

“There are more things in heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” – William Shakespeare, Hamlet

Ticking Time Bomb

The American populace counts down to Election Day with impatient intent.  Will their party man occupy the White House come January 21, 2017?  Or will their party woman occupy a federal prison cell?

These are questions that only the good wisdom of time can answer.  Here at the Economic Prism we watch with indifferent curiosity.  We don’t think either candidate’s worthy of high office.  But we’re eager to know the election (Read More....)

. . . → Read More: The One Thing that Will Change Everything

An Abundance of Idle Trucks

by MN Gordon

Economic Prism

An Abundance of Idle Trucks

The popular economic theme being reported by the popular press still remains.  That the economy is grinding higher.  That growth is improving, albeit slowly.  That blue skies are just over the horizon.

Naturally we have some misgivings.  As far as we can tell, business is not humming along.  Earnings are stagnant.  Profits are slim.  Moreover, corporate reductions in force (RIFs) are being executed with the imprecise targeting of a sledge hammer.  Even Google’s laying off staff.

Most notably, if the economy were (Read More....)

. . . → Read More: An Abundance of Idle Trucks

Prepare for the Unthinkable

by MN Gordon

Economic Prism

Red Ink

Growth and profits mask a variety of problems.  They hide business inefficiencies and the money suck of corporate administrivia.  They also conceal unproductive staff.

But most of all growth and profits obscure the extreme value subtracting forces of bloated management teams.  During good times it is unclear what these smug fellows do.  During bad times it is lucidly clear that most of them ain’t worth a darn.

When the profits inevitably recede, the senior executives, with their silly 24 point project reviews and cumbersome project execution requirements, appear lost.  They’re left exposed, with their pants down, and without a clue in the world as to what business it is they’re actually in.  What the heck have they been doing all this time?

Where does the money come from?  How is it spent?  Over (Read More....)

. . . → Read More: Prepare for the Unthinkable

The Number One Factor Influencing Fed Monetary Policy

by MN Gordon

Economic Prism

Things Ain’t Right

A brief scan of the financial and economic landscape – both in the U.S. and abroad – offers ample confirmation that we are in the midst of a great reset.  From a feint tickle at the turn of the new millennium to a persistent itch a decade ago, the preponderance of evidence in this regard is now much too painful to ignore.  There’s no denying that things ain’t right.

Debt is increasing while GDP’s stagnating.  Stocks are rising while earnings are declining.  Incomes are flat-lining for the majority of workers while growing by leaps and bounds for the 1 percent.  Plus there’s over $13 trillion of negative-yielding debt.

With all this going on, what’s become lucidly clear is the frank understanding that there’s nothing that can really be done to reverse it.  No executive order.  No monetary (Read More....)

. . . → Read More: The Number One Factor Influencing Fed Monetary Policy

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